Four Year Analysis of 28 Million Adults Finds No Mortality Increase From COVID Vaccination

14 January 2022
by: Juicing For Health
in Blog

Last updated on

Five years ago, healthcare workers around the world rolled up their sleeves and received an injection that would spark one of modern medicine’s most heated debates. Millions followed in the months ahead, lining up at pharmacies, stadiums, and makeshift clinics to receive their COVID-19 vaccines. Others refused, citing concerns about long-term effects that no one could yet measure. Now, after years of speculation, political battles, and passionate arguments at dinner tables across the globe, researchers have finally gathered enough data to answer the question that has haunted both camps. What actually happened to everyone who received those vaccines? A massive new study published in JAMA Network Open tracked nearly 29 million French adults over four years, making it the largest and longest analysis of COVID-19 vaccine outcomes to date. And the findings may surprise people on both sides of the debate.

France Became a Living Laboratory

https://twitter.com/MichaelAlbertMD/status/1997751861730853161?s=20
Between May and October 2021, France experienced its mass vaccination campaign. Researchers saw an opportunity. By tracking health outcomes through the French National Health Data System, they could follow vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals for years, not just months. Numbers behind the study are staggering. Scientists analyzed data from 22.7 million vaccinated individuals and compared their outcomes against 5.9 million people who remained unvaccinated. Combined, participants represented roughly 40% of France’s entire population, all between ages 18 and 59. Participants in the vaccinated group had received at least one dose by October 1, 2021. Most had completed a two-dose regimen of either Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. Unvaccinated individuals had not received any injection by November 1, 2021, giving researchers a clear comparison group. Follow-up continued for a median of 45 months, nearly four full years. During that window, researchers tracked every death, every hospitalization, and every major health event. Civil registry records provided mortality data through March 2025, while cause-of-death information remained available through December 2023.

Mortality Rates Tell an Unexpected Story

When researchers crunched the numbers, a clear pattern emerged. Vaccinated individuals showed a 25% lower risk of dying from any cause during the study period. Among the vaccinated group, 98,429 deaths occurred, representing 0.4% of participants. Unvaccinated individuals experienced 32,662 deaths, or 0.6% of their group. Hospital deaths from severe COVID-19 painted an even starker picture. Vaccinated participants had a 74% lower risk of dying from COVID complications while hospitalized. Only 280 vaccinated individuals died during COVID-related hospital stays, compared to 308 in the unvaccinated group, despite the vaccinated population being nearly four times larger. But the study’s most surprising findings came from non-COVID causes of death. Across every major category, vaccinated individuals showed equal or lower mortality rates. Cancer deaths, heart disease, respiratory conditions, and even external causes like accidents and suicides all trended lower in the vaccinated population. Dr. Michael Albert, a physician who analyzed the study results, summarized the key findings on social media. Vaccinated adults showed a 25% lower risk of death, with no increased long-term mortality from mRNA COVID vaccines.

Skeptics Raise Valid Questions About Confounding Factors

Critics of vaccine research have long argued that studies fail to account for differences between people who choose vaccination and those who decline. French researchers anticipated these objections and attempted to address them head-on. Vaccinated participants tended to be slightly older, with a mean age of 38 compared to 37.1 for unvaccinated individuals. Women made up 51.3% of the vaccinated group versus 48.5% of the unvaccinated population. More significantly, vaccinated individuals showed higher rates of cardiometabolic conditions, including diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. Yet despite these risk factors that would typically predict higher mortality, vaccinated individuals lived longer on average. Researchers attributed part of this apparent paradox to socioeconomic differences between groups. Vaccinated participants were less likely to receive complementary state health insurance, a program serving lower-income French residents. Only 9.2% of vaccinated individuals used the program compared to 20.9% of unvaccinated participants. Geographic distribution also differed, with unvaccinated individuals more concentrated in overseas territories and southern regions. Scientists used statistical weighting to account for 41 different comorbidities and demographic characteristics. Even after these adjustments, the mortality gap persisted. Researchers then calculated something called an E value, which measures how strong an unmeasured factor would need to be to explain away the observed results. An unmeasured confounder would need to double the risk of either vaccination or death while halving the other to account for the findings.

Rare Side Effects Confirmed as Rare

Doctor holding syringe making covid 19 vaccination injection dose in shoulder of female patient wearing mask. Flu influenza vaccine clinical trials concept, corona virus treatment, close up view.
Since vaccines first rolled out, reports of myocarditis and pericarditis have fueled concerns about cardiac risks. Both conditions involve inflammation around the heart and can have serious consequences. French researchers examined these outcomes directly. Data confirmed that cardiac inflammation following vaccination remains a rare event, affecting roughly one in every 10,000 vaccinated individuals. More importantly, researchers found that COVID-19 infection itself poses a greater myocarditis risk than vaccination. Short-term mortality also showed reassuring patterns. Within six months of receiving any vaccine dose, participants experienced a 29% reduction in all-cause mortality compared to control periods. Cancer deaths, cardiovascular deaths, and deaths from external causes all declined in the months following vaccination. Even cause-specific analysis revealed no categories where vaccinated individuals fared worse. Deaths from infectious diseases, mental and behavioral disorders, nervous system conditions, and respiratory diseases all showed lower rates among the vaccinated population. Suicide rates, often cited as a potential concern related to pandemic-era interventions, were actually 12% lower among vaccinated participants.

Political Tensions Complicate Scientific Findings

Scientific research rarely exists in a vacuum, and COVID-19 vaccine studies face particular scrutiny given the political climate surrounding pandemic response. Secretary of Health RFK Jr. has publicly stated that Americans were deceived about vaccine safety. Elon Musk has claimed hospitalization following his own vaccination. And efforts to restrict vaccine availability have gained traction in certain American political circles. President Donald Trump, during his first term, contributed to vaccine skepticism even as his administration funded vaccine development through Operation Warp Speed. Misinformation spread rapidly across social media platforms, with claims ranging from microchip implantation to magnetic injection sites. Against this backdrop, French researchers emphasized their methodology. Data came from mandatory national health insurance records, not self-reported surveys. Deaths were confirmed through civil registry records, eliminating recall bias. And the sheer scale of the study, covering 40% of France’s population, provided statistical power that smaller trials could never achieve.

Unanswered Questions Remain

Even the most comprehensive studies have limitations, and French researchers acknowledged several in their paper. An estimated 300,000 fraudulent health passes circulated in France during 2022, potentially introducing classification errors. Some unvaccinated individuals may have obtained fake documentation showing vaccination, which would blur the line between study groups. Cause-of-death data were only available for 59% of deaths, those occurring before December 31, 2023. Later deaths could only be counted, not categorized by underlying condition. And despite extensive statistical adjustments, unmeasured confounders may still influence results. One finding puzzled researchers and warrants further investigation. Adults aged 18 to 29 showed even stronger protective effects from vaccination than older participants, though the underlying reasons remain unclear. Similarly, differences emerged between vaccine types. Pfizer recipients showed a 27% mortality reduction compared to unvaccinated individuals, while Moderna recipients showed a 12% reduction. Whether this reflects actual efficacy differences or population characteristics requires additional research. The timing of vaccination also mattered. Individuals vaccinated before July 12, 2021, when France implemented its health pass requirement, showed stronger mortality reductions than those vaccinated afterward. Early adopters may have differed from those who waited for mandates in ways that affected their overall health outcomes.

Scientists Draw Clear Conclusions

After analyzing 28 million health records over four years, French researchers reached an unambiguous conclusion. A causal link between mRNA vaccination and excess long-term mortality appears highly unlikely. Study authors acknowledged that residual confounding may explain some of the observed protective effect. Vaccinated individuals may simply lead healthier lives in ways that national databases cannot capture. But the possibility that vaccines caused hidden long-term harm found no support in four years of population-level data. Findings support the long-term safety of mRNA vaccines that are widely used worldwide. Researchers expressed confidence that their national-level results, drawn from one of the world’s most comprehensive health data systems, provide meaningful reassurance about vaccine safety.

Pandemic’s Shadow Still Looms

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOvvyqJ-vwo
COVID-19 has killed more than 7.1 million people worldwide according to official counts, with 46 deaths reported in just the past week. Beyond mortali

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