Doctors’ offices and emergency rooms across America are seeing something they have never seen before. A record has fallen, one that stood for nearly three decades, and public health officials are bracing for what comes next.
Flu season arrived with force during 2025, and new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirms what many physicians suspected. Respiratory illness activity has reached “very high” levels for the first time during the current season, with outpatient visits for flu-like symptoms now exceeding any rate recorded since federal tracking began in 1997.
Behind these numbers lies a story of a new viral variant, lagging vaccination rates, and a health care system under strain. And according to experts, conditions will get worse before they get better.
A Record Nearly 30 Years in the Making
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpFBh7gqL7k
About 8% of all visits to health care providers during recent weeks were classified as flu-like illness, a designation applied to patients presenting with fever along with a cough and/or sore throat. Since 1997, when systematic monitoring of such visits began, no flu season has produced numbers like these.
CDC data released in early January painted a stark picture of respiratory illness burden across the country. Seasonal influenza activity remains elevated and continues increasing in every region, with hospitals and clinics reporting patient volumes that have stretched staff and resources thin.
What makes these figures striking is not just their magnitude but their timing. Flu seasons follow predictable patterns, with activity building through late fall, peaking somewhere between December and February, and tapering off by spring. Experts now warn that the current surge has not yet reached its seasonal peak, meaning the worst may still lie ahead.
Young Americans Bear the Brunt
Children and young adults account for a disproportionate share of flu-related medical visits during the current season. Roughly 35% of outpatient visits for respiratory illness involved patients under 24 years old, with children younger than 5 making up about 20% of that total.
Pediatric vulnerability to influenza has long concerned public health officials. Young immune systems, while resilient in many ways, can struggle against certain flu strains. Respiratory syncytial virus, known as RSV, compounds the problem for the youngest patients. Emergency department visits and hospitalizations for RSV are increasing among children ages 0 to 4, adding pressure to pediatric units that are already managing heavy flu caseloads.
Parents seeking care for sick children have encountered crowded waiting rooms and extended wait times at many facilities. Some pediatric urgent care centers have implemented overflow protocols, while children’s hospitals in several states have activated surge capacity plans.
Hospitalizations Jump Nearly 50% in a Single Week
Perhaps no statistic captures the severity of the current season better than hospitalization figures. CDC estimates show at least 120,000 flu-related hospitalizations since the season began, a number that represents a 48.1% increase from the prior week alone.
Such a dramatic weekly jump signals rapid community spread and suggests that many infections are progressing to serious illness requiring inpatient care. Hospitals in some regions have reported near-capacity conditions in their medical units, with flu patients occupying beds that might otherwise serve those with other acute conditions.
Beyond hospitalizations, the CDC tallies at least 11 million flu illnesses and 5,000 deaths so far during the 2025-2026 season. Among those deaths, at least nine involved children, a grim reminder that influenza can prove fatal even among young, otherwise healthy individuals.
New York Sets Unwanted Records
No state has felt the impact of flu season more acutely than New York, where health officials have recorded numbers that eclipse anything in recent memory.
During the week ending December 20, New York logged 72,133 confirmed flu infections, the highest single-week case count ever recorded in the state. Health department officials also reported the largest number of flu hospitalizations ever documented in a single week, straining hospitals from Long Island to Buffalo.
Dr. James McDonald, health commissioner for New York state, appeared on “Good Morning America” to address growing public concern. His assessment was blunt.
“We are experiencing quite a severe flu season right now,” McDonald told viewers, urging residents to take precautions and consider vaccination if they had not already received a flu shot.
New York’s experience may foreshadow what other states will encounter in coming weeks as the virus continues spreading. Health officials in several neighboring states have reported rising case counts and are monitoring hospital capacity.
A Variant Called Subclade K
Behind this season’s unusual severity lies a relatively new player in the influenza family tree. A variant known as subclade K has emerged as the dominant strain circulating in American communities, and its characteristics help explain why so many people are getting sick.
Subclade K belongs to the H3N2 virus lineage, itself a subtype of influenza A. Of the 994 flu samples tested since September 30, nearly all were identified as influenza A. Among those samples that underwent further genetic analysis, roughly 90% were confirmed as H3N2, with subclade K representing the predominant form.
H3N2 strains have a reputation among epidemiologists. Seasons dominated by H3N2 tend to produce higher hospitalization rates and greater mortality, particularly among older adults and those with underlying health conditions. H3N2 also mutates faster than other flu subtypes, making it harder for immune systems and vaccines to keep pace.
Subclade K did not appear out of nowhere. Epidemiologists tracked its spread during summer months in Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom, where it drove significant spikes in flu activity. By fall, the variant had arrived in American communities and began its rapid ascent to dominance.
Other Respiratory Viruses Add to the Burden
Influenza is not acting alone during the current respiratory illness season. COVID-19 and RSV are both circulating and adding to the overall disease burden, even as they follow different patterns.
COVID-19 activity remains low compared to the flu, but is increasing at the national level. While the pandemic’s acute phase has passed, the virus continues causing illness and occasional hospitalizations, particularly among older and immunocompromised individuals.
RSV, meanwhile, has hit pediatric populations hard. Emergency departments have seen rising numbers of young children with RSV infections, and hospitalizations among children ages 0 to 4 have increased. RSV can cause severe respiratory distress in infants and toddlers, sometimes requiring intensive care.
For health care facilities, managing three circulating respiratory viruses at once creates logistical and clinical challenges. Testing protocols must account for multiple pathogens, treatment approaches differ for each virus, and infection control measures must prevent spread within hospitals and clinics.
Vaccination Rates Stuck in Place
Despite widespread availability of flu vaccines and mounting evidence of a severe season, vaccination rates have barely budged.
As of December 13, around 42.2% of adults and 42.3% of children had received a flu shot. These numbers represent little change from earlier in the season, suggesting that millions of Americans who could benefit from vaccination have not yet sought it out.
Flu vaccines are available at pharmacies, primary care offices, community health centers, and many workplaces across the country. Most insurance plans cover flu shots at no cost to patients, and programs exist to provide vaccines to uninsured individuals.
Public health officials have long struggled with vaccine hesitancy and complacency around influenza. Many people view flu as a minor inconvenience rather than a serious health threat, leading them to skip annual vaccination. Others harbor concerns about vaccine side effects or effectiveness.
Last Season’s Death Toll Looms Large
For those who doubt influenza’s lethal potential, last season’s pediatric mortality figures offer sobering evidence.
During the 2023-2024 flu season, 289 children died from influenza-related causes in the United States. Nearly all of these deaths occurred among unvaccinated children. It was the highest pediatric death toll ever recorded since mandatory tracking of such deaths began in 2004.
One additional pediatric death from the current 2025-2026 season has already been added to the record, bringing renewed attention to the importance of vaccinating children against flu.
Pediatric flu deaths, while statistically rare, devastate families and communities. Many of these deaths occur in otherwise healthy children who develop severe complications from what begins as a routine flu infection. Vaccination offers significant protection against such outcomes.
CDC Urges Annual Vaccination
Amid rising cases and hospitalizations, the CDC continues recommending annual flu vaccination for everyone ages 6 months and older, with rare exceptions.
Evidence for vaccine effectiveness remains strong. During the 2019-2020 season, the last flu season before the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted normal patterns, flu vaccination prevented an estimated 7 million illnesses, 3 million medical visits, 100,000 hospitalizations, and 7,000 deaths in the United States.
When vaccine strains match circulating viruses well, flu shots reduce the risk of needing to visit a doctor for flu by 40% to 60%. Even in seasons when the match is imperfect, vaccination often reduces symptom severity and lowers the risk of serious complications.
For those with egg allergies, the CDC notes that any age-appropriate vaccine, whether egg-based or non-egg-based, can be safely administered. Concerns about egg allergies should not prevent anyone from getting vaccinated.
Vaccination remains particularly important for those at higher risk of serious flu complications, including adults over 65, pregnant women, young children, and individuals with chronic health conditions such as asthma, diabetes, or heart disease.
Peak Season Has Not Yet Arrived
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I2IM6g6L2U
With peak flu season still weeks away, public health officials are preparing for continued high activity. Hospital systems are reviewing surge plans, clinics are extending hours to accommodate sick patients, and health departments are ramping up public messaging about prevention measures.
Hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette, and staying home when sick can help slow transmission. For those who have not yet received a flu shot, vaccination remains available and effective even mid-season.
Flu seasons are unpredictable by nature, and even experts cannot say with certainty how the coming weeks will unfold. What the data make clear, however, is that the 2025-2026 season has already earned its place in the record books, and it is not finished yet.
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